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Where Is a Company Most Likely to Go Insolvent In 2016?
Insolvency is one of those elements of business that will never leave us. Just as some companies thrive in the market, others struggle, and of those, some are always destined to become insolvent. While you might be forgiven for thinking that insolvency rates remain the same everywhere, that’s simply not true. In fact, according to leading trade credit insurer Atradius, there is an imbalance in the global economy that will see some countries with increased insolvent business and others will see numbers fall.
In their latest Insolvency Forecast, they published their predictions for 22 major trading markets, and while their overall prediction is for a decrease in the number of insolvent companies in 2016, this decrease will be extremely modest. However, the potential for a new global economic recession and the continued low oil price worldwide pose threats to the companies. Nevertheless, they stick to an expected change of -5% in total insolvencies.
More interesting is the news that the total number of expected bankruptcies in 2016 is 67% higher than it was before the 2007 recession, and in some key countries it is surprisingly higher. Consider for a moment that Portuguese companies are 440% more likely to go insolvent than they were in 2007, Italian companies are 280% more likely, and Spanish are 250% more likely. It is clear that the economic recovery has not hit all nations equally.
The story extends to Greece, which had huge economic problems in 2015, culminating in their parliament accepting a recovery deal from the Eurozone. Understandably, 2015 saw a 10% increase in business failures, but 2016 will see another 5% increase, making it very difficult to be a Greek business.
Switzerland, Luxembourg, Norway and New Zealand are expected to see no improvement in insolvency rates in 2016. While the UK will only see a 1% improvement in the number of insolvent companies, which is a dramatic drop from the 9% improvement seen throughout the 2015 financial year .
This is all due to a number of very unstable factors in the global economy, especially China’s. The country has sent a number of revisions to their growth for the year and has had to suspend their stock market on several occasions due to sharp declines in its value. Should China recover from these stumbles, we may witness a very different kind of global economy, showing good growth despite the gloomy predictions.
Jason Curtis, Commercial Director at Atradius had this to say about the report: “”The challenging external environment combined with low commodity prices is putting pressure on global markets, increasing the risk of insolvency despite strengthening domestic economies. This is a clear warning shot to companies who must remain attuned to the risks of trading even as the economy recovers.
Despite improvements in insolvency statistics for the UK and Ireland in 2015 and predicted improvements again for 2016, the market remains challenging with insolvency levels still significantly higher than pre-recession levels. Few businesses are able to absorb the impact of a failed customer and businesses must continue to protect themselves and have robust credit management systems in place.”
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