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Football Betting – How to Select 3 Draws Or 5 Aways – Part 1
In general, most football teams act according to their recent results. This means that they often lose against good teams, and win against poor teams. The quality of the teams is reflected in their league position, where the season is settled and ‘all other things being equal’.
Now, we can take the starting position in the league as a guide to preparation, but this can change from day to day for reasons unrelated to the team itself – for example the results of other teams. Therefore, we need to have a continuous system of evaluating team performance that is based on recent (but how recent?) results. That’s the first step.
Then, we need a way to analyze the games in advance to find the possible results, so that we can put a number on this so that we can compare one match to another and decide which one will win at home, draw or win there. This way we can get to any of the 49 games on the British coupon (which can cover Australian football during the British summer). That’s part two.
A review of the 2009-2010 British football season gives us an idea of what happens on a regular basis. During this period (40 water coupons), 45% of the games were home wins, 26% were wins, and 27% were draws (non-game draws included).
Therefore, with the level of the team’s performance, the way to compare the matches and the figures above, we can start ‘at home’ and where the draw will be (or, either, home and away, if that’s your betting preference. ).
These are all averages – every week will be different and there will be unpredictable results.
So, in order to increase our chances of winning, whether it’s a triple chance or a regular chance, we need a way to spread the word. We do this by using plans or permissions, which help us hide a lot of integrations. After all, predicting 3 out of 49 random matches is a long shot (the odds are over 18,000 to 1). In a 10-horse race, you have odds of 10/1 to pick the winner. With a fixed bet, the bettor will have adjusted the payout to account (initially) for the possible outcomes, and the odds will move away depending on what is placed by the other players. So, we can say 10 cents per combination, that’s a big part of 18,000 lines and we can’t win because of fixed odds (even if the banker bets), you might have more winning lines if there are 8 draws in the results.
However, if we were to bet 3 out of ten games (120 different bets), or 5 away from 10 (252 different bets) then we could get a better chance. This is because conflicts are long; however, if we choose 10 to draw a prediction carefully, then we can reduce the odds significantly, and still have a chance to win several lines and make a profit.
(c) 2010 Phil Marks
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