Football World Cup Final Live Tv Online Free Football Betting – End-of-Season Games

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Football Betting – End-of-Season Games

Everyone loves a tester, especially when it comes to writing your readings. There is nothing more irritating to a gamer than to realize that your choices have not gone away and that you have not managed your money well.

Television coverage and increased exposure to betting has raised awareness of the ‘non-trier’ issue in horse racing, but punters also need to be careful. It’s clear that all is not well in soccer, based on the recent match-fixing scandal in Germany involving referee Robert Hoyzer, the ongoing investigation into Italian results and unsettled betting on obscure European and international matches.

Fortunately, the consistency of results in the big leagues (especially in England) shows that there is no reason for punter’s lack of confidence. The main problem – as in horse racing – lies on the margins, in those matches (or races) not exposed to the media glare and where skulduggery is less likely to arouse suspicion.

All very trying

However, my research shows that the ‘don’t try’ issue creates a problem at the end of the season, even in the big leagues. Most leagues are competitive enough to ensure they advance in the battle for the championship, places in Europe and safety from relegation.

But, inevitably, some teams have nothing left in the final weeks of the season, and that’s where problems can arise.

The last few weeks of the league consist of three types of matches:

1. Matches between two teams without a match.

2. A match between two teams is something to play.

3. Matches between one team with something to play for and one team with nothing.

Apathetic

The commitment of each team cannot be taken lightly in the first round, so the best way to bet at the end of the season is to focus on rounds two and three.

Similarities in the second group should be tested using the usual methods. (Anyone who doesn’t know should read our football betting articles inside-edge-mag.co.uk – Ed), but the best betting opportunities are usually in the third category, where there is always the possibility of a ‘non-trial’. ‘.

This is not to say that there is anything that happens in the game, just that a slight drop by one team can change a competitive league like the English Premiership.

There could be many reasons for the lack of interest – including the perception that many people are ‘on holiday’ before the season ends. There is no doubt that, according to the demands of modern football, a player who has been injured will be rested when his team has nothing to play, or that there will be a relaxation in preparation. Whatever the reasons, our results below show that a team with something to play for is more likely to win a game than a team with nothing.

Across the top three English divisions and major European leagues that we analyzed (Spanish Liga, German Bundesliga and French Ligue 1), these matches usually result in a 50-60% win rate for the team with the most experience, and victory. rate of 20-30% for the team without anything to play. The numbers vary from year to year and league to league, but they are all the same.

It is a bone of contention that such statistics provide irrefutable evidence, but there is one important piece of evidence that changes the story for me. If there is no correlation between the results and the urgent need for one team to get points in such games, we would expect more success between the teams in higher positions than those struggling near the bottom, as that has been the case all along. weather. In fact, the success of teams fighting to avoid relegation is very high in such games at the end of the season – almost in proportion to the success of the teams at the top of the table chasing titles, places in Europe. or play-off slots.

Fight to survive

For example, the last five seasons of the English Premiership have produced a 55% success rate for teams with the same playing experience. That number doesn’t change, it doesn’t matter whether the team is in the top six or the bottom six.

It’s a similar story in other leagues, although the teams at risk of relegation in such games tend to be slightly lower than those at the top of the table.

So, do these numbers alone provide a good betting opportunity? The simple answer is no, but there are some factors that can help improve these numbers.

Let’s look at the whole picture first. A 55% win rate would provide a consistent advantage if the odds are equal, but it would not be the case in a match where one team has a play and the other team does not.

Based on the matches that fell into this category last season in our league we played, the average bet on all the teams with the features they play would have resulted in a small loss. This was due, in part, to the lower-than-average number of games these teams won last season, but more importantly to the reduction in the pressures players are asked to accept in such teams.

How to overcome difficulties

Bookmakers often have a ‘no-play’ problem when they raise prices for the final game, although a few make it through the net. If you’re a good booker, you’ll be able to see the matches – otherwise, you’ll find it hard to make a profit by supporting teams that have something to play for.

The opposite, is that the benefit is in supporting these sides, because teams that have nothing to play for will be there for such games. This does not hold water, however, due to the success of these groups. The problem for the players, as mentioned before, is to know if the teams have tried hard enough – the evidence shows that, there won’t be.

So, how can we succeed? Well, a little analysis into the statistics puts more body on the assumptions that are often made in the last game of the season.

Starting at the top, the end-of-season records for the league champions are very revealing. There is clear evidence that, when the head is protected by mathematics, there is a common tendency for professionals to take their foot off the oil. For example, last season, the champions of Spain and Germany were guaranteed to have two games – Valencia and Werder Bremen, who won, then lost their last two games.

This is not far from a unique example. In 2001, Manchester United lost their last three games, escaping the title, although it must be said that they finished with four consecutive victories while in the same position the previous season.

Overall, however, the history of the champions who have already taken the crown shows that they can relax when the competition is won. In the leagues analyzed here, the winning percentage of the game is usually over 60%.

After the title was secured, however, this dropped to 57% over the past five years. And the fall is even more impressive in games against a team that wants to play – their success rate is only 45%.

Tons of benefits

In general, then, it is important to challenge the experts who already have the crown. Last season, in the leagues shown here, this strategy would have given a 24% profit to deal with. If you only looked at the games where the opposing team had a play, the risk against the champions would have been 100% and the profit increased by 125% to complete the division.

The only caveat is to be careful of anything that can make the players to continue to press – one example is Arsenal last season, when they were champions of the Premiership with four games left but they were desperate to keep their unbeaten record. They did it, but with only a 50% win rate in their last four games (two wins, two draws).

Another thing would be when the lesser side is chasing a mark like 100 – and it was the case with Wigan Athletic in the old Division Two in 2003, when they reached three figures with two wins and a draw, although they won. experts already.

Knowing that professionals relax when they don’t play, it’s easy to think that the parts that have been removed before should be this favorite. Again, the reality is more complicated.

Down on the ground

Overall, in the competitions analyzed here, relegated teams have a 23% win rate just before relegation – very close to what is expected from relegation teams throughout the season. In other words, they don’t fall when all hope is gone.

In fact, lower teams have surprisingly good records in the final weeks of the season. On average, they manage a good split, a draw and a home loss and there is no league where their number of home defeats exceeds the number of wins and draws – making the lower teams worth looking at in the Asian challenge. at home, as often, if they will not be there, to be free from their enemies.

Where they do worst is away from home. More interestingly, they are often the lambs to the slaughter (home or away) against teams that have something to play for. Their success rate in such games is 70% and, in the last five years, no inferior team has won even one of these games in the top leagues of France, England and Germany.

A loss of 70% is equal to the odds that their opponents are close to the 2/5 or 4/9 mark. These teams are tired of teams like this, even if you could still get an advantage last season against the teams that are out of the league. With an additional selection of the planned difficulty (at least 1/2, say), the possibility exists to make money in the game.

The mid-table teams are places to tread carefully. Although statistics show that players can often rely on sides that want to go to the top or fight relegation, this is not the case with the teams that are in the middle of the last few games of the season, not promoting promotion and without fear. of demolishing a few places.

A final word

In the competitions analyzed here, the average team’s success rate in their final games does not look too bad, at around 33%, which is very much in line with their overall season record.

The picture isn’t pretty, however, as the numbers dwindle down to games against teams still to play. The success rate of the safe teams in the middle of the table drops to 26% and their risk increases to 49% (from 41% overall).

In the end, betting at the end of the season all comes down to the odds at hand. Raising the prices of these games is very difficult, and it is impossible to establish strict rules about the betting time or acceptance. Appreciating the statistics is important, however, because the end of the season games are not governed by fixed rules and are often a law unto themselves. One golden rule is this: make sure you know what your choice will be.

Most Football Betting Articles

  • Football Betting – Last Game of the Season
  • Football Betting – Betting on the run

Written by Q

Dennis Publishing

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