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Future of UDF in Kerala – Unraveling Kerala’s Political System
Home Minister Mr. Ramesh Chennitala made it clear when he admitted that BJP is a militant group in Kerala. A party that was politically irrelevant in Kerala has become difficult to imagine. Let’s talk more about this.
The growth of the BJP as a major force was due to the growing number of Nairs who had been with the Congress over the past two decades. The community which is numerically strong and respectable was a vote bank for the Congress during the tenure of K Karunakaran who tried to strengthen the community. The law of happiness that was followed by the last prime minister Mr. K Karunakaran kept the BJP as a major player in Kerala politics. On the other hand, a section of the poor among the Nair community who retained ideological views remained part of the LDF for many years. It is this establishment that shakes Kerala which also changes the politics of Kerala.
Everyone wants to know the future. The ruling UDF is worried about its future in Kerala’s bipolar politics where people vote in alternating shifts. According to these views, the LDF is all set to return to power in the 2016 elections. Does this mean that the LDF is not worried? Comrade Pinarai Vijayan, who would be the prime minister, is afraid of the leader of the constitutional party VS Achutanandan, who will not forgive his supporters after he is expelled from the party. VS being a prominent figure in establishing statistics it is possible that a rival candidate can spoil Mr. Pinarai Vijayan’s chances.
If this is the case with the two leading parties, the BJP is also worried. The upcoming 2016 assembly elections will be crucial for the BJP to demonstrate that it will have more elected members in the assembly who will be at the centre. If not the culture of the party will be like that of AAP in Kerala which became a football player. BJP knows its strength. The party has successfully penetrated the Nair community in the last decade. Using the SNDP network the party hopes to convert more Ezhava voters to its party. Leaving no stone unturned, the BJP is also ready to cooperate with the Kerala Congress which is bitter with the Congress for not supporting the party’s leader Mr. KM Mani to alcohol fraud.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Kerala to use the opportunity against the UDF. He succeeded in drawing crowds and attracting the attention of parties and files. To win any battle, the leader must inspire confidence in his followers. Mr. Modi scored well in this aspect. But can this alone work? It is in this area that we must think seriously.
To understand more about Kerala politics you need to look at two leading parties in Kerala. Let’s take the UDF first. The UDF was born out of anti-communism in Kerala. So the question will come, who all are against the communist party in Kerala? Yes, there is a strong communist movement. Let’s explore them one by one:
First, a church that views Marxist ideas against religious teachings. The church wants its sheep in its way. Communism is essentially against religions and churches that were persecuted in former communist countries. The Marxists are a threat to the church and the church wants to prevent the LDF from coming to power.
Second, Muslim leaders who see Marxism against Islam. Islam does not require its believers to believe in any other doctrine other than Allah. The sweet group of Muslim League forwards look at the Left and question whether the Leftist ideology always wants to eliminate the Muslim League as a political movement. Readers may recall the writings of late Comrade EMS Namboodirippad who advocated the dissolution of the Muslim League in Kerala.
Third, farm lands that lost their land to serfs. They are scattered in all UDF parties. Of course, there is a powerful Kerala Congress which has a lobby on the farm or has been nurtured by the Kerala Congress leadership. The prospect of a left front coming to power, former farm workers, does not surprise them.
Fourth, many middle-class people who see the Left as obstructionists or opponents of development. Their main group has been against the labor gangs that have plagued Kerala for decades. After all, the middle class also sees the Left as a violent group. He respects leaders like late Mr. K. Karunakaran and Mr. Ommen Chandy as strong leaders who have the desire to keep the CPM organized for violent politics.
Looking at the different aspects we can see a strong LDF reception group with a low middle class from both the majority and the minority. The large sections of Ezhavas, SCs, and STs who are laborers and intellectuals are their basic base. It is the vote bank that is being threatened by the BJP’s growth.
BJP’s gain and LDF’s loss happened in Aruvikkara elections. But even then getting into power requires a lot of support to take over the majority of the community. If the BJP succeeds in weaning popular leaders like VM Sudheeran, Ramesh Chennitala, and the Kerala Congress, the party has a chance to succeed as this will swing the votes in favor of the BJP.
But if BJP is not doing well, things cannot be known if leaders like Mr. Ommen Chandy, Mr. VM Sudheeran, Mr. Ramesh Chennitala have good support at the grass roots to keep BJP away from power politics. wisdom. Votes are for LDF or any front that can take LDF strongly. In order for a party to come to power, it needs the votes of Christians and Muslims in its favour. It is in this area that the BJP faces an uphill task.
Due to these strong reasons, the ruling UDF has a better chance than the growing BJP to get another vote in Kerala. But this should come with a front-end overhaul and add a few and remove one. What does this mean? The people of Kerala are not worried about the news against the UDF. It must be remembered that during the scam, only Mr. Sabarinathan won the Aruvikkara elections. For many people in Kerala, the popularity given to the Muslim League is very worrying. Then comes the displeasure of the middle class with the violent politics that the CPM is doing to its enemies. Followed by this is the presentation of Comrade Pinarai Vijayan as CM which cannot be digested by the party-beaten VS supporters. Most of them are with BJP now.
Kerala has a leftist ideology. In politics, there is no 100% left or right. Every political party has its supporters on the left and on the right. For example, KN Govindacharya was against globalization and advocated security, so he quit. So is Mr. Swaminathan Gurumurthy who heads the RSS. The UDF has VM Sudheeran and AK Antony who are leftists (Nehruvian Socialists). In that case, if the UDF breaks away from the Muslim League and takes on the CPI and the smaller Left players, it can attract anti-CPM votes, leftist votes, and a large number of votes that are turning to the BJP. Yes, the UDF has a future, it lies in planning ahead if they want to stop the LDF from entering the government.
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