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Indian World Cup Win No Fluke, Suggests Flash Cricket Simulator

Earlier this year, the Indian cricket team won the World Cricket World Cup in 2011. Although India dominated the tournament, cricket is a game where any top team can beat anyone on their day. Thanks to the existence of online cricket predictors, we can try to determine the chances of India winning, and how the other places would be.

ODI CricSim is a cricket simulation game that determines the outcome of a match by breaking down more than 200 variables from the real game of players around the world, including the length of the batsman’s innings, the probability of hitting four or six per ball, the bowler. The degree of neglect is the extent of the bowler’s wealth. For this test I used the ODI CricSim engine to run 1,000 World Cup simulations based on the quarterfinal teams’ standings. The teams in each game were the same as the real-world teams, and if the simulated team advanced while their real-world counterpart did not, the quarterfinal team was used in their next game.

The results were as follows:

First Quarterfinal – Pakistan vs. West Indies:

Pakistan 572
West Indies 428

Second Quarterfinal – India vs. Australia:

India 576
Australia 424

Third Quarterfinal – New Zealand vs. South Africa:

New Zealand 399
South Africa 601

Fourth Quarterfinal – Sri Lanka vs. England:

Sri Lanka 568
England 432

The results of these quarterfinal matches show that New Zealand beating South Africa is the biggest disappointment of this stage of the competition. South Africa were the only losing team that the umpire said deserved to win. Instead, it was South Africa who had the best chance of winning the quarter-final, which will add to the misery of the Proteas who see the tournament as a great opportunity for their team to spoil their Cricket World Cup duck.

First Semifinal:

There were four possible matchups in this semifinal, and the following were the odds of predicting what the matchup in question would have been:

New Zealand vs. England (172 reviews)
New Zealand vs. Sri Lanka (similar to the real world) (227 reviews)
South Africa vs. England (260 repetitions)
South Africa vs. Sri Lanka (341 iterations)

The results of the simulator were as follows:

New Zealand vs. England: NZL 105, ENG 67.
New Zealand vs. Sri Lanka: NZL 134, SRL 93.
South Africa vs. England: SAF 181, ENG 79.
South Africa vs. Sri Lanka: SAF 180, SRL 161.

Second Semifinal:

There were four possible matchups in this semifinal, and the following were the odds of predicting what the matchup in question would have been:

India vs. West Indies (247 reviews)
India and Pakistan (similar to the real world) (329 copies)
Australia vs. West Indies (181 reviews)
Australia vs. Pakistan (243 reviews)

The results of the simulator were as follows:

India vs. West Indies: IND 197, WIN 50.
India vs. Pakistan: IND 238, PAK 91.
Australia vs. West Indies: AUS 138, WIN 43.
Australia vs. Pakistan: AUS 186, PAK 57.

Conclusion:

There were sixteen finals, and the following were the odds to predict what the matchup in question would have been:

India vs. South Africa (157 iterations)
India vs. Sri Lanka (similar to the real world) (110 repetitions)
India vs. New Zealand (104 reviews)
India vs. England (64 repetitions)
Australia vs. South Africa (117 reviews)
Australia vs. Sri Lanka (82 reviews)
Australia vs. New Zealand (78 reviews)
Australia vs. England (47 repetitions)
Pakistan vs. South Africa (53 iterations)
Pakistan vs. Sri Lanka (38 reviews)
Pakistan vs. New Zealand (35 repetitions)
Pakistan vs. England (22 repetitions)
West Indies vs. South Africa (34 repeats)
West Indies vs. Sri Lanka (24 repeats)
West Indies vs. New Zealand (22 repeats)
West Indies vs. England (13 repetitions)

The results of the simulator were as follows:

India vs. South Africa: IND 98, SAF 59.
India vs. Sri Lanka: IND 69, SRL 41.
India vs. New Zealand: IND 63, NZL 41.
India vs. England: IND 54, ENG10.
Australia vs. South Africa: AUS 65, SAF 52.
Australia vs. Sri Lanka: AUS 57, SRL 25.
Australia vs. New Zealand: AUS 47, NZL 31.
Australia vs. England: AUS 37, ENG10.
Pakistan vs. South Africa: PAK 22, SAF 31.
Pakistan vs. Sri Lanka: PAK 19, SRL 19.
Pakistan vs. New Zealand: PAK 14, NZL 21.
Pakistan vs. England: PAK 12, ENG 9.
West Indies vs. South Africa: WIN 13, SAF 21.
West Indies vs. Sri Lanka: WIN, SRL 14.
West Indies vs. New Zealand: WIN 8, NZL 14.
West Indies vs. England: WIN 6, ENG 7.

These results give the odds of winning the 2011 Cricket World Cup, based on the quarterfinals and assuming the simulator is correct:

India 28.5%
Australia 20.6%
South Africa 16.3%
New Zealand 10.7%
Sri Lanka 9.9%
Pakistan 6.7%
West Indies 3.7%
England 3.6%

It is important to note here that these rankings do not reflect the eligibility of each team, but their chances of winning the tournament given their quarterfinal appearance and their opponents in the semifinals are final. Perhaps the most disappointing of the tournament itself, the top two teams met in the quarterfinals, setting off what would have been a titanic final between the three-time champions and defending champions.

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