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Introduction to Investment Funds – The CIVETS Nations
Throughout the year 2011 a great deal of financial attention was given to the Investment Fund’s potential for investors who want to look at CIVETS countries. Extensive analysis and commentary was provided on the growth and development of the economic situation in Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa.
More funds have been launched in the past 12 months and activity in these countries continues to grow as investors look to tap into the world’s fastest growing economy.
The reasons for the increase in this activity are varied.
For example, the CIVETS countries have a population of about 600 million people representing about 8 percent of the world’s population, people known to be young and ambitious. Therefore, the increasing population of these countries means that the market demand is strong for the main products and this is reinforced by the population which seems to be stable in growth in all areas of life.
For this reason, the CIVETS countries reflect many of the cultural and industrial characteristics found in large emerging markets such as the BRIC economies – Brazil, Russia, India and China. In fact, in some cases, the growth rates of the CIVETS countries are now exceeding those of the established BRIC countries.
Another important thing is that, when we look closely, the CIVETS countries do not have the serious problems they are facing in the developed countries. This is an excellent product for investors looking for short-term and long-term returns.
Here we look at the most important features of the CIVETS countries and their influence on the potential Investment Fund. Please remember that the value of money can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you invested.
The current government of Colombia has spent a lot of time and effort to strengthen security throughout the country and build national infrastructure.
It has been keen to expand trade and business in all its retail sectors and has reinvested some of its oil revenues to further improve its business and social environment.
A fact that is not often known is that Colombia is the third largest exporter of oil to the USA and has a strong foundation for development thanks to the constant flow of money.
Apart from oil the major industries of this country are coal, gold, textiles, food processing, clothing & footwear, beverages, chemicals and cement which power the US commodity markets.
According to a report published on the Guardian on the Internet, its economy grew by 4.3% in 2010, compared to 2.8% in the US, which is very attractive to foreign investors. Only time will tell if this growth will continue and if political and social harmony can be maintained or not.
With about 245.6 million people, Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world. About half of the economy is industry.
The Indonesian government has also expressed its desire to see Indonesia develop to be one of the 10 largest countries in the world by 2025. If this goal is successfully achieved then the first investment in Indonesia can bring great benefits.
Like the other CIVETS countries, Indonesia is seen as a good place to invest due to its high population such as young people, willing to live with their income and therefore the market demand is strong and encouraging. Its role as a manufacturing hub also supports its long-term prospects.
According to the Wall Street Journal, some investment managers see better exposure through local multinational corporations because of the strength of existing housing.
As a result, the long-term outlook looks good for investors.
Lower labor costs and improved manufacturing means that Vietnam has grown in attractiveness to foreign investors despite its economic problems over the past 5 years.
Its economy is 41% industrial and the World Bank shows a growth of 6% this year rising to 7.2% in 2013 – according to the Wall Street Journal Online – which is a good look.
The possibility of lower taxes for investment management companies is an exciting development in this market.
However, there are concerns about Vietnam’s stance on high interest rates and inflation, and the country’s continued policy of fast-track policy. Standard & Poor’s downgraded Vietnam in 2011 amid warnings that banks were at risk of default and raised concerns about bad loans.
Egypt’s main assets include the growing ports on the Mediterranean and the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, which is seen as a trade hub connecting Europe and Africa, and many untapped natural resources.
Egypt also benefits from strong trade and investment ties with the EU. In 2010 agriculture made up about 10% of the economy, industry 27% and employment 64%.
Agreements have also been signed with Egypt and China which will see the two countries cooperate in the production and distribution of vehicles in North Africa. This is good news for Egyptian business and shows China’s commitment to the North African market.
Chinese automaker Zhejiang Geely Holding Group and Egyptian auto assembler GB Auto SAE hope to produce 30,000 vehicles a year a few years from now, and want to expand that to 50,000 a year, a Geely source told the Wall Street Journal.
However, it should be remembered that Egypt’s continued and strong economic prospects have been seriously undermined by political instability.
The Turkish economy has proven to be doing well with the global recession and the Turkish government’s financial and public debt situation is much better than most countries in the eurozone.
The growth of the private sector in recent years and the increased efficiency and resilience within the economy have had positive effects. A strong social security system has also contributed to a stable economic environment.
Turkey also has a track record of recovering from financial crises as it did well after the 2001 banking crisis.
Turkey also appears to have benefited from the financial crisis of neighboring Greece. For example, Turkish goods from Greece increased by almost 40% and the number of Greek companies registered to do business in Turkey increased by 10.4% in 2011 according to the Turkish website Hurriyet Daily News.
This seems to indicate that Turkey has strong financial prospects. However, according to the Financial Times blog, Turkey’s current account deficit is “large”, now about 10% of the domestic product is worrying, but they also say that Turkey’s economy looks very good compared to its European neighbors. Its GDP grew by 8.9% in 2011
South Africa is a country that reflects the characteristics of both emerging and developed markets. Foreign investors have long been attracted to South Africa’s rich and abundant natural resources, especially gold. Foreign direct investment is increasing as the government encourages more international companies to locate there. But it is the mining sector that remains dominant in South Africa due to its large natural resource base and the stability of the infrastructure already in place.
Inflation boosted by renewed demand in its automotive and pharmaceutical industries, as well as the 2010 FIFA World Cup, have helped South Africa to resume growth after a recession during the global financial crisis.
It is worth noting however that South Africa had the slowest growth of all Civets last year and has suffered from 25% unemployment. The World Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund states: ‘High unemployment, high household debt, low spending, low economic growth, and a strong appreciation of the exchange rate are making the transition difficult’.
It is clear that there is great potential for the investment fund in all CIVETS countries. The structure of population and industry means that there is a good economic outlook for hungry investors.
However, optimism should be tempered for a number of reasons and some experts warn against rushing into markets that can be unpredictable and volatile.
Political and social problems, as well as inefficient and ineffective corporate governance laws, lead to economic instability and high currency fluctuations. The CIVETS countries are currently lagging behind the mainstream markets of the BRIC countries and smart investors only allocate funds that they can invest in the markets of the CIVETS countries.
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