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Soccer Predictions – How Can You Beat the Bookies?
Even though bookies are constantly changing their football prediction methods and trying to avoid paying, we can still find holes in their predictions. The question is how. There is no single million dollar answer. However, there are two ways to beat the bookies. One way is to analyze the data of unmeasured matches. Another way is to improve on the forecasting statistics used by bookmakers.
The first method requires you to search for data such as match type or values, which are not used in calculations. Some of the most common factors that can affect the outcome of a football game are:
- Similar type which can be international/national league, cup, or friendly match. The most profitable for you is the final cup, where the media picks the favorites and the expert can profit by betting on the cheapest teams.
- Compare ahead. Each team must define their priorities for the upcoming games because team resources are limited. The European Cups are good examples of the top tiers of less important sports.
- Similar time it is important, since football predictions are often inaccurate at the beginning and end of the season.
- players’ injuries, illnesses and transfers especially when it comes to key players. The author’s ability is often calculated before this information is available.
- European League – predictable and unpredictable. The Italian, Norwegian, French and Spanish leagues are considered reliable. Unexpected are the English and German leagues, especially at the beginning and end of the season.
- Other things and transport, team managers, game availability, weather and real opportunities.
Analyzing all of that for every game can be a difficult and time-consuming task. Another option is to use forecasting methods, which make changes to the bookies’ predictions.
Why would their models be revised? First, by carefully examining the predictions of bookies, it is easy to notice that their models are based on average figures. Low odds are often associated with high ranking teams and vice versa. It is clear that the accuracy of their models suffers when the group’s skills change. Therefore, by taking into account the strength of the group, you can maximize your profit by betting on the underground prices.
Second, sportspeople do not distinguish between attacking and defensive football teams and do not consider that football teams choose different tactics when playing at home or away. Once you learn to distinguish between attacking and defensive strengths, you can easily predict the number of goals and beat the bookies on under/over betting.
Statistical models developed over the past few years explain the results of previous comparisons based on changes in technology and methods. Authors of books do not use advanced examples like this. Well-developed and well-established time-dependent models can predict up to 70% of matches, surpassing bookmakers’ predictions whose accuracy is much lower.
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